Medium-term Elliott wave view on USDSEK suggest the rally from 25 April 11 unfolded as 5 waves impulse Elliott wave structure that ended on 20 March 20 peak at 10.481 with wave a Cycle degree that is show below on 4 Hourly chart.
From 20 March 20 peak USDSEK traded lower ending wave ( 1 ) Intermediate degree at 9.852 before the 3 wave bounce that corrected in wave ( 2 ) of same degree at 10.211. 06 April 20 pair traded lower starting new cycle in wave 1 Minor degree that ended at 9.907 before bounce higher in 3 waves that corrected in wave 2 minor degree. From 22 April 20 we saw the pair selling off until August finishing wave 3 of wave ( 3 ) Intermediate degree at 8.621.
After ending wave 3 in minor degree USDSEK corrected higher to 9.165 ending wave 4 on 25 Sep 20. The pair found sellers again for almost full 3 months ending wave 5 minor degree at 8.122 on 07 Jan 21 that completed wave ( 3 ) higher degree.
Let’s zoom in to 1 Hourly chart to have closer look on wave ( 4 ) that corrected in 7 swing, on chart below.
1 Hourly Elliott wave view shows that after the pair bottomed at 8.122 in wave ( 3 ), it traded higher in impulsive 5 waves ending wave A Minute degree at 8.430 before trading lower in 3 waves ending wave B at 8.252 on 25 Jan 21. The pair traded higher again ending wave C at 8.481 completing wave W in Minor degree before we saw a bigger correction in wave X correcting cycle from 06 Jan 21 low – 05 Feb 21 peak.
After wave X ended at 8.204 on 25 Feb 21, the pair found buyers that traded higher in 3 waves ending wave W minute degree at $8.596 on 09 March 21. The pair traded lower in 3 waves ending wave X in minute degree at 8.433. Right after sellers gave up in wave X the pair found buyers aggressively trading higher up to 8.766 ending wave Y of Y of wave ( 4 ) on 30 March 21.
In short the pair ended cycle from 06 Jan 21 - 30 March 21 with wave ( 4 ) at 8.766 in 7 swing correction WXY. After 30 March 21 peak the pair traded lower in impulse 5 waves, and it is proposed to have ended wave 1 Minor degree at 8.360 on 20 April 21.
As long as 20 April 21 swing low holds the pair should at least see a 3 waves bounce higher correcting cycle from 30 March 21 in wave 2 proposed to end around 50 - .618% retracement of wave 1 which could represent a selling opportunity against 8.766. At Trading Waves we favor selling bounces in 3, 7 or 11 swing against 30 March peak.
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